CFB Betting & CFB Picks August 29th (Free)
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College Football Odds: After a warm up two game slate we are set to officially get underway with a quality Thursday night slate of CFB betting. There are a number of FBS vs FCS matchups that are borderline exhibition games, but we still have a six-game slate to breakdown. Make sure to also check out the College Football Week 1 DFS Article where we will get into individual CFB Picks and lineup construction for Thursday’s slate.
Looking for more CFB Betting content? Check out our season previews below!
5 Big Questions for the 2019 Season
UCLA at Cincinnati 7 PM EST : Cincinnati -3 (ML -150), O/U 57.5
UCLA
The first game of the slate in my opinion is the best as Chip Kelly’s UCLA Bruins travel to Cincinnati where they face an underrated Bearcats team who returns a lot from an 11-2 team last season. The spread has bounced around between -2.5 up to -3.5 for Cincinnati and since it’s around a key number you really want to line shop if you are looking to make a play here.
UCLA should be excited heading into 2019 as they return 19 starters and QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson should really improve in his Sophomore season. In front of him is an offensive line that returns 65 career starts and that’s going to be key as controlling the line and be able to run on Cinci is crucial if they want to pull this minor upset. Chip Kelly is starting to really get the personnel he needs to install his system and the defense will also be much improved which should reduce the nearly 35 PPG they gave up last season.
Cincinnati
Cincinnati also returns a quality QB as Desmond Ridder is one of the AAC’s best and the Sophomore is poised to really take the next step and continue to lead this offense. It doesn’t hurt that he has 1st Team AAC RB Michael Warren behind him and with his dual threat ability they make for a big one two punch causing teams trouble on the ground. It’s not the most exciting thing to analyze but it seems like Cincinnati’s biggest question mark is can their defensive line replicate their ridiculous 3.3 YPC allowed from 2018 or will they be a team that UCLA can run on and control the tempo?
This is a great early season game that should provide insight to both of these teams futures and how far along a team like UCLA is in their Chip Kelly rebuild. Im pretty high on UCLA long term and think they are on the track this season, but I did make a play on Cincinnati -2.5 as I’m willing to back them at home against a team that may struggle to contain the dual threat abilities of Ridder and this rushing attack.
Georgia Tech at Clemson 8 PM EST : Clemson -37, O/U 60.5
Clemson is over a five touchdown favorite so I won’t get too in depth for this one since its very likely the starters don’t even see the fourth quarter in this one.
Georgia Tech is in rebuild and a transition as Geoff Collins takes over for Paul Johnson, and with him brings a new offensive scheme that should move GT from a triple option team to a more dynamic unit. The personnel they have is going to have some growing pains despite some talent on the roster, and against an opponent like Clemson it’s not going to really matter as they are simply outmatched.
Clemson is stacked across the board and even with massive losses on their D-Line they simply just reload. Trevor Lawrence and all his weapons should get some work in the first half and then will be watching like the rest of us as Clemson calls off the dogs late in the game. They can basically name their score in a game this lopsided and it’s tough to see much value in a situation like this.
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FIU at Tulane 8 PM EST : Tulane -2.5 (ML -135), O/U 58.5
This is a game I think could be useful for DFS purposes, but on the betting side not much stands out with Tulane sitting as a small favorite and an O/U that doesn’t jump off the page.
Both teams should have more stable and potent offenses as FIU has Senior James Morgan under center while Tulane has former LSU recruit Justin McMillan looking for his best year now that he has the QB job to himself. In addition to the QB’s, each team is excited as the defenses are improved and that will make each of them dark horse teams to make some noise in their conference races.
With this being the first game of the year, it’s not a spot I’m looking to attack with a lot of unknowns, but keep an eye on how these offenses look and again make sure not to overlook the potential DFS value in this one with some playmakers on both sides.
Texas St at Texas A&M 8:30 PM EST : Texas A&M -33.5, O/U 56.5
Another game with massive blowout potential as Texas St goes to College Station to take on the Aggies. Texas St is also in transition as Jake Spavital takes over and he will look to improve one of the worst offensive units in the entire country as the Bobcats average only 19.8 PPG last year. Having nine starters including their QB back should help Spavital hit the ground running and install an up-tempo type attack which could pay dividends against lesser opponents then A&M.
On the Aggies side they return seven starters on offense including Kellen Mond who has a chance to be a top end QB this season. They lost a pair of All Americans in TE Sternberger and RB Trayveon Williams from last season, but this still figures to be a dangerous offense and if the defense can find replacements for the departures (Only 4 starters back) they could be a tough game on anyone’s schedule.
The situation here is interesting as a trip to Clemson is on deck for A&M so there is some incentive to be vanilla this week and call off the dogs as early as possible. This would have me lean to the Texas St side of things if I had to make a play, but it’s still a scenario where we are banking that A&M really slows down the attack as they have the ability to run it up if they wanted to.
Kent State at Arizona State 10 PM EST : ASU -25, O/U 60
Another big spread, but this is an interesting game between the Golden Flashes of Kent St and Herm Edwards ASU Sun Devils. There are a lot of DFS targets, but it’s not a one sided affair as Kent State returns 9 offensive starters including former Auburn QB in Woody Barrett who has dual threat abilities. Head coach Sean Lewis took one of the worst offenses in the country in 2017 (12.8 PPG) and improved them to 24 PPG in his first year as coach so another year in his system could have this KSU offense causing trouble for opposing defense.
Arizona State
On the Arizona St side they lost an all-world WR in N’Keal Harry and plenty of experience under center as Manny Wilkins also departs. They immediately turn the page to the future as True Freshman Jayden Daniels won the starting job and will be given the keys to a strong offensive attack right out of the gate.
If I was a true freshman QB, two of the main things on my wish list would be A) An experienced offensive line and B) A top end Running Back , both of which Arizona State has. Junior RB Eno Benjamin is one of the top players in the entire country and he will be running behind an offense line unit that returns almost intact from last season where they were a strong unit. That should make life easier for Daniels and allow this offense to continue with less disruption than you might think.
Kent State
Even though Arizona State should win this game I’m willing to bank that Kent State can move the ball and stay within striking difference even if they are outmatched. If they are able to effectively attack on offense Kent State +25 and the Over both are in play in a game that could have points being put up in bunches by both sides.
Utah at BYU 10:15 PM EST : Utah -6.5, O/U 48
Last game of the night, but maybe the most important as many people think Utah is a legit playoff contender. First step for the Utes is get a win in the Holy War as them and BYU don’t like each other and this game always seems to stay close regardless of each teams situation. Currently Utah sits at -6.5 , but this spread is bouncing around so once again make sure to shop around for the best line if you are looking to make a wager.
Utah
Utah’s defensive line is getting talked up a lot and regardless of where you rank them it’s hard to refute they are at least in the conversation for best D-lines in the entire country. They have experience at QB with SR Tyler Huntley, a 2nd team Pac 12 RB in Zach Moss, and basically the entire WR unit back from 2018 so it’s not just a defense that is causing problems for opponents.
BYU
On the BYU side they have a lot of returning starters as well with nine on offense including Sophomore Zach Wilson who took over mid-season and that should pay dividends in his first full year under center. He has his top targets on the outside back in Bushman and Hifo so the opportunity is there to build on the mediocre offensive numbers we saw last season. The big question is can this O-Line keep him upright against what we already discusses is a top pass rush for the Utes.
I’m staying away from this game as it feels like Utah should be able to continue the win streak against BYU (won last 8) and sneak out of Provo with a win, but covering the ~6 points could be a challenge with how close this game usually is.
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Good Luck everyone!
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